Hydrogen Hopes Meet Hard Truths in California

A new CARB review slows hydrogen forecasts, shifting focus to station reliability and measured growth through 2035

12 Feb 2026

California has scaled back expectations for the growth of its hydrogen vehicle market, as regulators signal a more cautious expansion of refuelling infrastructure through 2035.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has published its latest annual assessment of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and stations under Assembly Bill 126, which extends state oversight of the sector for another decade. The review confirms that hydrogen remains part of California’s zero-emission transport strategy, but it points to slower adoption and a greater focus on improving station performance.

There are currently 61 retail hydrogen stations operating across the state. Chevron recently added new sites in Vacaville and Moreno Valley, increasing network capacity by more than 1,600 kilograms per day. The presence of established energy groups suggests continued, if measured, industry backing.

However, momentum in vehicle uptake has been weaker than earlier projections. Around 14,128 light-duty fuel cell vehicles are registered in California. CARB now expects 112 stations to be in operation by 2031, fewer than previously forecast.

The revised outlook reflects a shift in priorities. Rather than pursuing rapid expansion, regulators are placing more emphasis on station reliability, uptime and location planning. Past outages and supply constraints have highlighted the operational challenges of maintaining a small and geographically concentrated network.

AB 126 requires CARB to review progress annually and identify actions needed to support a commercially viable refuelling system. The extension of the framework to 2035 provides policy continuity for automakers and infrastructure providers planning multi-year investments.

For manufacturers such as Toyota, which has promoted fuel cell models in the state, the slower rollout increases the need to align vehicle supply with dependable access to fuel. Infrastructure operators, meanwhile, face high capital costs and uncertain utilisation rates as they scale the network.

California’s hydrogen strategy remains intact, but the state’s latest assessment suggests a period of consolidation rather than acceleration. The pace at which reliability improves may determine whether the sector regains stronger growth later in the decade.